Robert & Jeanette from Our Breeze Auckland team chatted with weather forecaster Phil Duncan from WeatherWatch about the highly anticipated Cyclone Gabrielle hitting the North Island this Monday/Tuesday. This cyclone could be the worst one in this current century.
If you're wondering if anything has changed in the weather prediction, this is what Phil has to say:
"Not a great deal has changed. The storm is still heading towards us".
He further explained that WeatherWatchNZ always monitor incoming storms, and most of them fall apart before reaching us. Whereas, for this Cyclone Gabriel he said, "This one is just in a very serious position".
If you're wondering about the chances that it could change and be not as bad, Phil said it possibly could. However, it is not looking like it would change anytime soon.
"Could it change a little bit on the way in and not be as bad? Absolutely. Is that looking very likely? Not so much at the moment. But it is possible".
Phil said that you start noticing around Sunday - that's when the wind picks up and there's a bit of rain!
"Mostly Monday and Tuesday is when the storm moves through."
"For Auckland it's not the same as what we had in Auckland anniversary weekend which was a storm, a thunderstorm basically."
"This is a very different system where the severe weather is spread right across 100 of kilometers". The cyclone is not super focused on just one region, it will be across many other regions too. The reason why it was super intense for Auckland last time was because it was only focused on one region.
Is there going to be another bad flooding given how wet it already is?
Phil explained that it could "potentially". However, he believes that it won't be as bad as then since it was a "huge amount of rain" in a short span of time that fell in just one region whereas Cyclone Gabrielle is going to be more spread out.
He further explained that he is not underestimating the numbers. "I'm just trying to say compared to that Auckland flood- Anniversary flood, this is different".
He added," We're still talking about 150-200mm and that could cause flooding especially North of the city (Auckland), and then you've got the wind as well".
"The reason why we're still not a 100% sure is because the precise placement of the centre of the storm makes all the difference as to where exactly the severe weather in New Zealand will be. So if the storm is slightly off shore, then so is some of the severe weather".
It will probably clear out at the end of Wednesday or Thursday according to Phil.
Check out weatherwatch.co.nz and listen to the Breeze to get the latest updates on Cyclone Gabrielle.
